Stop hoping for a goal and start trading the clock. This guide shows how to refine LTD exits for consistent profit, moving from simple betting to true trading.
Anyone who has been in the sports trading game for a while is no stranger to the Lay the Draw (LTD) strategy. On paper, it’s beautiful in its simplicity: find a football match with a clear favorite, lay the draw, and wait for the favorite to score. Once that goal hits the back of the net, the draw odds drift out, and you green up for a tidy profit. It sounds simple enough.
In reality, that basic approach works until it doesn’t. Many traders have experienced the frustration of a 92nd-minute equalizer wiping out their profit, leaving them with a sea of red. Others have sat through a painfully dull 0-0 where the odds barely move, and the liability feels heavier with every passing minute.
These scenarios are common because the real art of LTD isn’t just in the entry; it’s in the exit. The key is to evolve from a passive spectator hoping for a goal to an active trader managing a position, a shift in mindset that platforms like Betfair themselves encourage through their extensive Education Hub.
Let’s explore how to accomplish that.
Moving Beyond a Goal-Dependent Strategy
The classic LTD method leaves a trader completely exposed to the whims of the game. It amounts to placing a bet and just… waiting. A professional trader, however, doesn’t just wait; they manage risk and react to new information. A sudden red card, a tactical shift, or a team that just isn’t performing as expected are all factors that can turn a promising trade on its head.
Relying on a single event, like a goal for the favorite, is a fragile strategy. Consider what happens when the underdog scores first, or when the game is a tactical stalemate with zero shots on target. The initial edge evaporates, leaving the trader holding a risky position. The secret is to shift the mindset. The goal is not just to bet against the draw, but to trade the price decay of the draw odds over time.
Trade the Clock, Not Just the Goal
The draw’s odds are in a constant battle against the clock. With every minute that passes in a 0-0 game, the probability of a draw naturally decreases. There is simply less time for the teams to remain level. This downward pressure on the odds is what we call “time decay”, and it is the most reliable ally in this trade.
A goal is a catalyst—a massive shove that sends the odds plummeting. Yet even without it, the odds are slowly bleeding value. A trader’s job is to profit from that bleed, not just the big shove. When the trade is viewed this way, a whole new world of exit strategies opens up. The trader is no longer just a goal-hunter, but a time-trader.
The Time-Based Stop: An Exit Dictated by the Clock
One of the most powerful tools in an advanced trader’s arsenal is a time-based exit. This means deciding beforehand to exit the trade at a specific point—say, the 70-minute mark—if the score is still 0-0, regardless of the P/L.
The logic behind this is clear. After a certain point in the match, the dynamic shifts. The risk of a late, desperate goal from either side increases, and the market’s fear can cause the draw odds to stagnate or even shorten. The smooth, predictable time decay enjoyed for the first 70 minutes starts to become choppy.
Imagine a scenario where the draw was laid at 3.8. By minute 70, with no goals, the price might have dropped to 2.5. Cashing out at that moment guarantees a respectable profit. While a larger profit from an 80th-minute goal might be missed, the risk of a 92nd-minute heartbreaker is completely avoided. It’s about taking what the market gives and protecting capital. It is the disciplined choice.
Knowing When to Walk Away Even: The ‘Scratch’ Trade
Sometimes, a trade goes wrong from the start. The pre-match analysis might have pointed to a dominant home win, but 25 minutes in, the underdog is playing them off the park. Or, even worse, the favorite’s star defender gets a straight red card. The entire context of the game has changed.
In these moments, a professional trader doesn’t stubbornly stick to their original plan. They “scratch” the trade, getting out for break-even or a very small, controlled loss. The goal here isn’t to win; it’s to not lose. Protecting the trading bank is priority number one, and there is no shame in admitting the initial read was wrong. The market provides new information, and it’s crucial to listen. Sticking around in a trade that no longer makes sense is pure gambling, not trading.
Taking Profits Piece by Piece: The ‘Drip’ Exit
There is no need to think of an exit as a single action. Advanced traders often scale out of their positions to maximize profit and minimize risk simultaneously. This is the “drip” exit, and it’s a game-changer.
Let’s say the favorite scores at the 60-minute mark. The classic approach is to green up the entire stake immediately. But if another goal seems likely, an alternative exists. Instead of closing the whole trade, cashing out 70% of it locks in a substantial profit, covering the initial liability and then some. The remaining 30% is now a “free” trade.
It can be left to run, hoping for that second goal that will send profits soaring. If the other team equalizes, the hit is small because most of the winnings have already been banked. This method provides incredible flexibility and turns a simple win/loss proposition into a nuanced risk management exercise.
Beyond the Numbers: The Importance of Watching the Match
Finally, none of these strategies work in a vacuum. A trader cannot just set rules and walk away. It is essential to be watching the game and interpreting its flow. One must observe if the teams are creating clear-cut chances or just taking pot-shots from 30 yards out. The pace of the game, whether it’s frantic and end-to-end or a slow, tactical affair, is also a key indicator.
The story of the match tells the trader how the odds should be behaving. If the favorite is laying siege to the opponent’s goal, it might be wise to hold the position a bit longer. If the game is dead and lifeless, that time-based exit at 70 minutes looks more and more appealing. Fusing these quantitative exit rules with a qualitative read of the game is what separates the amateurs from the pros.
Putting It All Together: From Bettor to Trader
Mastering the Lay the Draw strategy is a journey. It starts with a simple idea but evolves into a complex and rewarding discipline. By moving beyond the “wait for a goal” mindset and embracing active trade management through timed exits, scratch trades, and scaled-out profits, a trader fundamentally changes their relationship with the market.
They stop being a passenger on the emotional rollercoaster of a football match and become the pilot, making calculated decisions based on time, risk, and the flow of the game. For those who wish to dive even deeper into the mechanics, professional traders like Caan Berry offer detailed breakdowns of the Lay the Draw strategy.
